Making sense of Libya?
On the 13th of August the newly elected House of Representatives in Libya passed its first decree calling for the international community tointervene immediately to ensure that civilians are protected. With all eyes focused on other crises in the world, including Iraq, Gaza and Syria, the chances are slim that there will be an international intervention in Libya any time soon. But what is actually going on in Libya that the newly appointed representatives feel the need to call for intervention?
By Daan Kayser & Hans Rouw
As can be expected in a post-dictatorship, a power struggle has been ongoing between various rival groups trying to secure a place at the table in order to safeguard their groups and personal interests. For some time after the fall of Khadaffi in 2011, the power struggle took place mainly in the political arena of the General National Congress (GNC). Increasingly however, the struggle for power has taken a violent turn.
At the political level, the main conflict pits against one another the more liberal National Forces Alliances (NFA) and the Islamic Justice and Construction party (JCP). On the ground there are two main armed conflicts. On the one hand, there is ‘Operation Dignity’, led by former Major General Khalifa Hafter, that claims support from Zintan and is aimed against the ‘Islamic threat in Libya’. This conflict so far mainly took place in Benghazi and is aimed at removing Islamist Ansar Sharia and its allies from the city. On the other hand, there is ‘Operation Dawn’ led by Misratan militias against Zintani militia at Tripoli airport. The Zintani’s are seen as more liberal and have links to the NFA, the Misratans are associated with Islamists and have links with the JCP. ‘Operation Dawn’ is seen by many as a reaction to ‘Operation Dignity’. According to Libya’s ministry of Health, the current fighting has led to 981 injured and 214 dead in July 2014 alone.
The armed clashes between various rival groups are increasingly developing through a discourse posing the many conflict lines into a conflict between two main blocks along a liberal-Islamist divide. This is the analysis picked up by most international media. However, the oversimplification of the current dynamics in a liberal-Islamist divide is a dangerous one that will not contribute to finding a sustainable solution for the crisis in Libya as any ‘solution’ based on this analysis will also be an oversimplification. Viewing the current crisis as a diametrical conflict between two blocks ignores the many historical and tribal divisions in the same way as the pro-Khadaffi and anti-Khadaffi divide was an oversimplification of the continuously changing complex web of alliances between tribes, cities and militias. These alliances are mainly based on the potential gains groups see in an alliance rather than being ideological in nature. Groups that oppose each other at one moment can become allies later. A clear example of this is the fact that the Zintani and Misrata militias, who fought on the same side during the uprising against Khadaffi, are now fighting each other in Tripoli. Another example is the new Zintani alliances with groups that fought on Khadaffi’s side during the uprising.
Political arena
Further Reading: http://wapenfeiten.wordpress.com/2014/08/19/making-sense-of-libya/
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